Preparing for 2026: What Mortgage Lenders Must Focus On to Win Business
As we head into 2026, mortgage lenders face a landscape defined by both opportunity and challenge. At first glance, interest rates remain elevated, affordability is tight, and purchase originations are under pressure. Yet within that pressure lie strategic levers that smart lenders can pull to position themselves for growth, profitability, and differentiation. Below are four key areas lenders should focus on now to win in 2026.
1. Refine the Origination Mix: Purchase + Refi
Despite headwinds, the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts overall single-family mortgage origination volume will tick up in 2026—to roughly $2.2 trillion. The increase is driven by both purchase activity (forecasted to rise ~7.7 %) and refinance (~9.2 %) in that period. That means lenders should not rely solely on purchase volume, but should also build models that flex between purchase and refi.
Simultaneously, lenders must adapt to lower growth expectations in purchase markets, given affordability pressures. According to data from Milliman, purchase mortgages decreased modestly in Q2 2025 year-over-year while refinance surged.
What to do:
- Build a dual-track origination strategy: one for purchase, one for refi, which can shift as rates/affordability change.
- Monitor early indicators (credit pulls, rate locks, intent-to-apply volumes) to pivot faster.
- Invest in tools and workflows, like Maxwell Point of Sale, that are equally effective for refi and purchase, so your overhead and processes don’t become skewed toward one segment that dries up.
2. Customer Segmentation & New-Buyer Focus
The profile of the borrower is shifting. First-time homebuyers and younger generations are increasingly prominent in the market. For lenders, this means the growth path lies with borrowers who are either new to homeownership or are less likely to be locked into ultra-low existing rates.
What to do:
- Develop product and marketing strategies tailored to first-time buyers and younger cohorts that include lower down-payment options, faster digital flows, and robust guidance from loan officers.
- Optimize for markets where affordability is improving or where inventory is less constrained (so you’re not fighting the same headwinds as others).
- Use predictive data to identify “move-up” or “right-side” opportunities including those who may be locked in on existing homes but could become refinance or purchase prospects later.
3. Affordability Pressures & Regional Mobility
Affordability remains a key drag on purchase activity as many households find themselves priced out of metros with a high cost of living. At the same time, some “refuge” or secondary markets are seeing migration and interest from cost-conscious buyers. For lenders, this means the opportunity is becoming more regional and selective.
What to do:
- Map your origination operations by geography and cost-profile. Focus efforts on regions where housing is more attainable and inventory is moving.
- Build digital origination and servicing infrastructure that can scale across regions, so you can more easily adapt to shifts in demand flows.
- Offer alternative products or guidance (down-payment assistance, partner programs) that ease the barrier to entry for buyers in constrained affordability zones.
4. Technology, Efficiency & Digital Experience
With tighter margins and a more competitive originator field, operational efficiency is not optional, it’s foundational. Elevated rates and compressed volumes mean lenders must do more with less. Analytics, automation, and digitized borrower experience become differentiators.
What to do:
- Invest in platforms that reduce manual touches and can automate document collection and verification.
- Prioritize borrower-facing digital journeys including faster pre-approval, transparency, mobile support. Ensure pricing is straightforward and simple for borrowers.
- Leverage data analytics to identify risk early, optimize pricing, and reduce turn-time. Faster turn-time = stronger borrower satisfaction and better market share in tight windows.
The mortgage market in 2026 will reward lenders who combine strategic focus with operational excellence. While the environment will not be hyper-growth, the forecasted 7% origination increase offers real upside for those ready. By aligning your business around a dual origination strategy, targeting growth segments like first-time buyers, leaning into regional affordability opportunities, and investing in technology and risk infrastructure, you’ll not only survive but thrive.
At Maxwell, we believe that modern mortgage lending is no longer just about rate and volume, it’s about speed, experience, data, and resilience. If 2026 is your year to lead, now is the time to act. Schedule a call with our team to learn more.
Related content
Loan Officer Advice
How to Help Borrowers Navigate Mortgage Loan Products & Pricing: A Guide for LOs
Emily Ward
Loan Officer Advice
New Rules, New Strategy: How to Drive Mortgage Leads in the Aftermath of NAR & FCC Rule Changes
Emily Ward
Loan Officer Advice
6 Ways to Generate More Referral Business from Real Estate Agents
Emily Ward